Baseline EconomyBaseline
A stable economy with no exogenous shocks. Useful for establishing baseline behavior before adding disruptions.
COVID-19 PandemicHealth Crisis
Models a pandemic shock: severe production and labor disruptions, demand shifts, accelerated payment digitization, and confidence collapse with gradual recovery.
Q9-Q20 85%
2008 Financial CrisisFinancial Crisis
Credit freeze, confidence collapse, housing bust. Severe but slower-building crisis with a persistent tail.
Q7-Q22 90%
Tech Bubble (Dot-Com style)Asset Bubble
Asset overvaluation followed by sharp correction. Initial euphoria boosts production, then sudden collapse.
Q5-Q12 60%Q13-Q22 80%
Hyperinflation SpiralMonetary Crisis
Excessive monetary expansion leading to runaway inflation, currency flight, and payment system breakdown.
Q5-Q24 95%
CBDC IntroductionTechnology
Central bank introduces a digital currency. Shifts payment velocity, improves monetary policy transmission, displaces some private rails.
Q9-Q24 70%
Supply Chain CrisisSupply Shock
Global supply disruption causing production shortfalls, price spikes, and inventory depletion. Staggered recovery.
Q7-Q20 75%